Critical Reflection: “Correlation does not imply causation”
1. Why we should not assume causality
Correlation only shows that two variables are related, not that one ...
Critical Reflection: “Correlation does not imply causation”
1. Why we should not assume causality
Correlation only shows that two variables are related, not that one causes the other
There may be a third variable (confounding variable) affecting both
The direction is unclear (A → B or B → A)
No experimental control → cannot confirm cause–effect relationship
2. Example of a Spurious Correlation
Ice cream sales & drowning rates
→ They are positively correlated
→ But ice cream does NOT cause drowning
→ The hidden variable is hot weather, which increases both
3. Reflection on My Correlation Matrix
Example: Study Time & GPA (r = .62)
→ This could be misunderstood as: “Studying more causes higher GPA”
Why it’s not necessarily causation:
A third variable like motivation or intelligence may influence both
Students with higher GPA may also choose to study more (reverse causality)
No controlled experiment was conducted
Conclusion
Correlation is useful to identify relationships
But to prove causation, we need experimental design, control variables, and deeper analysis